The cost of primary care consultations associated with long COVID in non-hospitalised patients: a retrospective cohort study using UK primary care data (preprint)

Background: Over 2 million people in the UK self-reported long COVID (symptoms continuing >12 weeks after the first COVID-19 infection) as of December 2022. Long COVID can lead to significant patient burden; however, the economic impact of managing long COVID in primary care is unknown. Objectives: To assess incremental costs of primary care consultations associated with post-Covid-19 condition or long COVID, to estimate associated national costs for the United Kingdom population, and to assess risk factors associated with increased costs. Design: A retrospective cohort study using a propensity score matching approach with an incremental cost method to estimate primary care consultation costs associated with long COVID. Setting: UK-based primary care general practitioner (GP), nurse and physiotherapist consultation data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care database from 31st January 2020 to 15th April 2021. Participants: 472,173 non-hospitalised adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were 1:1 propensity score matched to a pool of eligible patients with the same index date, the same number of prior consultations, and similar background characteristics, but without a record of COVID-19. Patients diagnosed with Long COVID (3,871) and those with World Health Organisation (WHO) defined symptoms of long COVID (30,174) formed two subgroups within the cohort with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: Costs were calculated using a bottom-up costing approach with consultation cost per working hour in the British pound sterling (GBP) obtained from the Personal Social Services Research Unit, Unit Costs of Health and Social Care 2021. The average incremental cost in comparison to patients with no record of COVID-19 was produced for each patient group, considering only consultation costs at least 12 weeks from the SARS-CoV-2 infection date or matched date for the comparator group (from 15th April 2020 to 15th April 2021). A sensitivity analysis was undertaken which restricted the study population to only those who had at least 24 weeks of follow-up. National costs were estimated by extrapolating incremental costs to the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the UK Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey. The impacts of risk factors on the cost of consultations beyond 12 weeks from SARS-CoV-2 infection were assessed using an econometric ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, where coefficients were interpreted as the percentage change in cost due to a unit increase in the specific factor. Results The incremental cost of primary care consultations potentially associated with long COVID was 2.44 GBP per patient with COVID-19 per year. This increased to 5.72 GBP in the sensitivity analysis. Extrapolating this to the UK population produced a cost estimate of 23,382,452 GBP (90% credible interval: 21,378,567 GBP to 25,526,052 GBP) or 54,814,601 GBP (90% credible interval: 50,116,967 GBP to 59,839,762 GBP) in the sensitivity analysis. Among patients with COVID-19 infection, a long COVID diagnosis and longer-term reporting of symptoms were associated with a 43% and 44% increase in primary care consultation costs respectively, compared to patients without long COVID symptoms. Older age (49% relative increase in costs in those aged 80 years or older compared to those aged 18 to 29 years), female sex (4% relative increase in costs compared to males), obesity (4% relative increase in costs compared to those of normal weight), comorbidities and the number of prior consultations were all associated with an increase in the cost of primary care consultations. By contrast, those from black ethnic groups had a 6% reduced relative cost compared to those from white ethnic groups. Conclusions: The costs of primary care consultations associated with long COVID in non-hospitalised adults are substantial. Costs are significantly higher among those diagnosed with long COVID, those with long COVID symptoms, older adults, females, and those with obesity and comorbidities.

Systematic approach to outcome assessment from coded electronic healthcare records in the DaRe2THINK NHS-embedded randomised trial (preprint)

ABSTRACT Background Improving the efficiency of clinical trials is key to their continued importance in directing evidence-based patient care. Digital innovations, in particular the use of electronic healthcare records (EHR), allow for large-scale screening and follow-up of participants. However, it is critical these developments are accompanied by robust and transparent methods that can support high quality and high clinical value research. Methods The DaRe2THINK trial includes a series of novel processes, including nationwide pseudonymised pre-screening of the primary care EHR across England, digital enrolment, remote e-consent, and ‘no-visit’ follow-up by linking all primary and secondary care health data with patient-reported outcomes. Findings DaRe2THINK is a pragmatic, healthcare-embedded randomised trial testing whether earlier use of direct oral anticoagulants in patients with prior or current atrial fibrillation can prevent thromboembolic events and cognitive decline ( www.birmingham.ac.uk/dare2think ). This paper outlines the systematic approach and methodology employed to define patient information and outcome events. This includes transparency on all medical code lists and phenotypes used in the trial across a variety of national data sources, including Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum (primary care), Hospital Episode Statistics (secondary care) and the Office for National Statistics (mortality). Interpretation Co-designed by a patient and public involvement team, DaRe2THINK presents an opportunity to transform the approach to randomised trials in the setting of routine healthcare, providing high-quality evidence generation in populations representative of the community at-risk.

Assessment of 115 symptoms for Long COVID (post-COVID-19 condition) and their risk factors in non-hospitalised individuals: a retrospective matched cohort study in UK primary care (preprint)

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS CoV-2) infection is frequently associated with a wide range of persistent symptoms, now referred to as post-COVID-19 condition, or Long COVID. The objectives of this study were to assess which symptoms are associated with confirmed SARS CoV-2 beyond 12 weeks post-infection in non-hospitalised individuals, and the risk factors associated with developing persistent symptoms. We undertook a retrospective matched cohort study between 31st January 2020 and 15th April 2021 using data from a large database of UK-based primary care electronic health records, Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum. We selected 486,149 adult patients with a confirmed diagnosis of SARS CoV-2 infection that had not been hospitalised within 28 days of the diagnosis (infected cohort). We propensity score matched them to 1,944,580 patients without a coded record of either confirmed or suspected COVID-19 (uninfected cohort). Outcomes were the presence of 115 separate symptoms at ≥12 weeks post-infection, and Long COVID, defined as having at least one of the symptoms included in the World Health Organisation case definition. Separate Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for individual symptoms and Long Covid. 62 symptoms were significantly associated with prior exposure to SARS CoV-2 after 12 weeks. The largest adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were for anosmia (aHR 6.49, 95% CI 5.02 to 8.39), hair loss (3.99, 3.63 to 4.39), sneezing (2.77, 1.40 to 5.50), difficulties with ejaculation (2.63, 1.61 to 4.28), reduced libido (2.36, 1.61 to 3.47), shortness of breath at rest (2.20, 1.57 to 3.08), fatigue (1.92, 1.81 to 2.03), pleuritic chest pain (1.86, 1.41 to 2.46), hoarse voice (1.78, 1.44 to 2.20), and fever (1.75, 1.54 to 1.98). Among the infected cohort, risk factors for Long COVID included younger age (aHR 0.75, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.81, for those aged ≥70 years compared to those aged 18 to 30 years), female sex (1.52, 1.48 to 1.56), belonging to an ethnic minority group (1.14 [1.07 to 1.22] for mixed race, 1.21 [1.10 to 1.34] for black ethnic groups, and 1.06 [1.03 to 1.10] for other ethnic minority groups, compared to white ethnic groups), socioeconomic deprivation (1.11 [1.07 to 1.16] for the most compared to the least socioeconomically deprived quintile), smoking (1.12, 1.08 to 1.15), obesity (1.10, 1.07 to 1.14), and a wide range of comorbidities such as COPD. SARS CoV-2 in non-hospitalised individuals is associated with a plethora of symptoms being reported at ≥12 weeks post-infection, with a higher risk associated with younger age, female sex, ethnic minority groups, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, obesity, and several comorbidities.

Therapies for Long COVID in non-hospitalised individuals - from symptoms, patient-reported outcomes, and immunology to targeted therapies (The TLC Study): Study protocol (preprint)

Introduction Individuals with COVID-19 frequently experience symptoms and impaired quality of life beyond 4-12 weeks, commonly referred to as Long COVID. Whether Long COVID is one or several distinct syndromes is unknown. Establishing the evidence base for appropriate therapies is needed. We aim to evaluate the symptom burden and underlying pathophysiology of Long COVID syndromes in non-hospitalised individuals and evaluate potential therapies. Methods and analysis A cohort of 4000 non-hospitalised individuals with a past COVID-19 diagnosis and 1000 matched controls will be selected from anonymised primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and invited by their general practitioners to participate on a digital platform (Atom5TM). Individuals will report symptoms, quality of life, work capability, and patient reported outcome measures. Data will be collected monthly for one year. Statistical clustering methods will be used to identify distinct Long COVID symptom clusters. Individuals from the four most prevalent clusters and two control groups will be invited to participate in the BioWear sub-study which will further phenotype Long COVID symptom clusters by measurement of immunological parameters and actigraphy. We will review existing evidence on interventions for post-viral syndromes and Long COVID to map and prioritise interventions for each newly characterised Long COVID syndrome. Recommendations will be made using the cumulated evidence in an expert consensus workshop. A virtual supportive intervention will be coproduced with patients and health service providers for future evaluation. Individuals with lived experience of Long COVID will be involved throughout this programme through a patient and public involvement group. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was obtained from the Solihull Research Ethics Committee, West Midlands (21/WM/0203). The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (1567490). Research findings will be presented at international conferences, in peer-reviewed journals, to Long COVID patient support groups and to policymakers.

Diagnostic accuracy of Loop mediated isothermal amplification coupled to Nanopore sequencing for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection at scale in symptomatic and asymptomatic populations (preprint)

IntroductionRapid, high throughput diagnostics are a valuable tool, allowing the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in populations, in order to identify and isolate people with asymptomatic and symptomatic infections. Reagent shortages and restricted access to high throughput testing solutions have limited the effectiveness of conventional assays such as reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), particularly throughout the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the use of LamPORE, where loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is coupled to nanopore sequencing technology, for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic and asymptomatic populations. MethodsIn an asymptomatic prospective cohort, for three weeks in September 2020 health care workers across four sites (Birmingham, Southampton, Basingstoke and Manchester) self-swabbed with nasopharyngeal swabs weekly and supplied a saliva specimen daily. These samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA using the Oxford Nanopore LamPORE system and a reference RT-qPCR assay on extracted sample RNA. A second retrospective cohort of 848 patients with influenza like illness from March 2020 - June 2020, were similarly tested from nasopharyngeal swabs. ResultsIn the asymptomatic cohort a total of 1200 participants supplied 23,427 samples (3,966 swab, 19,461 saliva) over a three-week period. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 detection using LamPORE was 0.95%. Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of LamPORE was >99.5% in both swab and saliva asymptomatic samples when compared to the reference RT-qPCR test. In the retrospective symptomatic cohort, the incidence was 13.4% and the sensitivity and specificity were 100%. ConclusionsLamPORE is a highly accurate methodology for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in both symptomatic and asymptomatic population settings and can be used as an alternative to RT-qPCR.